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超全!2019光伏產業年中分析

時間:2019-08-07 來源:聚光新能

CHAOQUAN!2019GUANGFUCHANYENIANZHONGFENXI,QIZHONGBAOKUOGUANGFUZHENGCE、GUANGFUSHICHANG、YIJIGUANGFUQIYEXIANZHUANGFENXI!XIANGQINGQINGJIANXIAWEN。

國內光伏政策密集發布,重點推動平價上網

乐彩网 2019GUANGFUBUTIEWEIRAOJINGJIAZHANKAI

LUOSHITUDI、XIAONATIAOJIANDE2019XINXIANGMUKECANYUJINGJIA。

GUANGFUJINGJIAZHENGCEYIXIUZHENGDIANJIAWEIBIAOZHUNQUANGUOPAIDUI。PUTONGGUANGFUDIANZHANJIQUANESHANGWANGGONGSHANGYEFENBUSHI:IILEIZIYUANQUSHENBAODIANJIA-0.05YUAN/kWh;IIILEI ZIYUANQUSHENBAODIANJIA-0.15YUAN/kWh。ZIFAZIYONG、YUDIANSHANGWANGGONGSHANGYEFENBUSHI:SHENBAODIANJIA-SUO ZAISHENGFENRANMEIBIAOGANDIANJIA+0.3YUAN/kWh;RANMEIBIAOGANDIANJIABUZU0.3YUAN/kWhDEDIQUBUXIUZHENG。

乐彩网 2019BUTIEZONGLIANG30YIYUAN,YUJIGUONEIZHUANGJI35GW。ZAIQUANGUOPAIXULEIJIBUTIEZONGESHI,GEXIANGMUNIANBUTIEEWEI“DUDIANBUTIEQIANGDU×ZHUANGJIRONGLIANG×NIANLI YONGXIAOSHISHU”,QIZHONGNIANLIYONGXIAOSHISHUANZUIDIBAOZHANGSHOUGOUNIANLIYONGXIAOSHISHUJISUAN(1300- 1500),WEIGUIDINGZUIDIBAOZHANGSHOUGOUNIANLIYONGXIAOSHISHUDE,ANIILEIDIQU1300、IIILEIDIQU1100JICHUXIAOSHISHUJISUAN。XIANGMUSHIJIYUNYINGSHIANZHAOSHIJISHANGWANGDIANLIANGHUOQUANDIANLIANGHUODEBUTIE。

乐彩网 YIYOU24SHENGSHIGONGBUJINGJIAGUIMO,HEJIZHUANGJIRONGLIANGWEI26.148GW。

ZAI2019.5.28RIGUANGFUXINZHENGJIGUANLIBANFACHUTAI,DINGYU2019.7.1WEIJINGJIAJIEZHIRIQI,ERJIEZHI7YUE3RIQUANGUO31GESHENGSHIQIZHONG24GESHENGSHIYIGONGBULEQIJINGJIAPEIZHIZIYUANDEXIANGMUMINGDAN,HEJIZHUANG JIRONGLIANGWEI26.148GW。

乐彩网 ZHEJIANGGONGSHIJINGJIAXIANGMUMINGDAN:FENBUSHIBUTIEZUIDIXUQIU2FEN,JIZHONGSHIZUIDI4FEN。

光伏經濟性主要取決于初始投資、發電量、電價等因素

GENJUCPIAYUCE,2019NIANFENBUSHIDIANZHANCHUSHITOUZIWEI3.78YUAN/W(LEJIEXIANGQING:DIERJIEZHONGGUOGONGSHANGYEFENBUSHIGUANGFUKAIFAJIANSHEJIPINGJIASHANGWANGSHIFANYINGYONGGAOFENGLUNTAN),QIZHONGZUJIANWEI1.68YUAN/W(BUHANSHUI);DIMIANDIANZHANCHUSHITOUZIWEI4.5YUAN/W,QIZHONGZUJIANWEI1.68YUAN/W(BUHANSHUI)。

GENJUCPIAYUCE,2025NIANZUJIANJIAGEYOUWANGXIAJIANGDAO1.18YUAN/W (BUHANSHUI)。

經濟性成為全球光伏市場需求的主要驅動力

乐彩网 SHOUYIHAIWAISHICHANGGAOZENGSU,QUANQIUGUANGFUZHUANGJICHIXUZENGCHANG。

HAIWAISHICHANGCHENGXIANZHUYAOSHICHANGHEXINXINGSHICHANGDUOYUANHUAFAZHANDEJUMIAN。2018NIANNEIXINZENGZHUANGJICHAOGUO1GWDEGUOJIACHAOGUO13GE,ER2017NIANJIN8GE。

2019-2021NIANQUANQIUXINZENGZHUANGJIYUJIWEI124.2GW、141.2GW、160.2GW。

乐彩网 2021NIANGUONEIXINZENGZHUANGJIYUJIWEI35GW、40GW、45GW。

多晶硅:國產比例快速提升

2018NIANQUANGUODUOJINGGUICHANNENGCHAOGUOWANDUNDEQIYEYOU10JIA,CHANNENGLIYONGLVBAOCHIZAIJIAOGAOSHUIPING,CHANLIANGCHAOGUO25WANDUN。

乐彩网 NIANHOUDUOJINGGUIJIAGEZOUSHIXIANGDUIWENDING,JIEZHI2019NIAN6YUE6RI,GUOCHANDUOJINGGUIYIJIZHIMILIAOSHOUJIAWEI76YUAN/QIANKE。

WOMENYUJI2019-2020NIANQUANQIUGUILIAOZONGXUQIULIANGFENBIEYUEWEI42.44WANDUN、45.98WANDUN。YOUYUDANJINGGUIPIANYUDUOJINGGUIPIANDEMEIWAGUIHAOLIANGBUTONG,YINCIJISUANQUANQIUGUILIAOXUQIULIANGSHIHOUXUYAOQUFENDANJINGSHICHANGHEDUOJINGSHICHANG。

乐彩网 NENGHAO、ZHEJIUCHENGBENZHANBIJIAOGAO,LONGTOUXIANJINCHANNENGYOUSHIMINGXIAN。

乐彩网 2019NIANCHENGBENJIAODIDE“DIDIANJIA+XINCHANNENG”JI“DIDIANJIA+LAOCHANNENG”HEJICHANNENGYUEWEI42.1WANDUN, KAOLVDAOXINCHANNENGDESHIJICHANCHUNENGLIWANGWANGZAIEDINGCHANNENGDE1.2BEIZUOYOU,QIANLIANGLEICHANNENGWANQUANNENGGOUMANZUQUANQIUDUOJINGGUIXUQIU。

BUJUBEICHENGBENYOUSHIDE“GAODIANJIA+LAOCHANNENG”ZUIZHONGJIANGTUICHUSHICHANG。

乐彩网 2018-2019QIJIAN,DUOJINGGUICHANNENGSHIFANGYINGLAIXIAOGAOCHAO。WOMENRENWEIZIBEIDIANCHANGEDUXIANZHI, YIJIXIANGDUIDIMIDEDUOJINGGUILIAOJIAGE,SHIDEDUOJINGGUICHANGSHANGKUOCHANCHONGDONGJIANRUO。

硅片:單晶硅片需求上升改變行業格局

2018NIANQUANGUOGUIPIANCHANLIANGYUEWEI109.2GW,TONGBIZENGCHANG19.1%。QUANQIUQIANSHIDASHENGCHANQIYEJUNWEIYUZHONGGUODALU。

SHOUYIXUQIUWANGSHENG,DANJINGGUIPIANJIAGEXIANGDUIJIAOJIANTING。

JIEZHI2019NIAN6YUE24RIDANDUOJINGGUIPIANJIACHAWEI1.21YUAN/PIAN。

電池:PERC產能釋放帶動電池產量持續高增長

乐彩网 2018NIAN,QUANGUODIANCHIPIANCHANLIANGYUEWEI87.2GW,TONGBIZENGCHANG21.1%。DIANCHIPIANCHANLIANGCHAOGUO2GWDEQIYEYOU12JIA,CHANLIANGZONGHEZHANZONGCHANLIANGDE53.4%。

PERCDIANCHIPIANJIAGEJIAOGAO,JIEZHI2019NIAN6YUE6RIYUE1.22YUAN/W。

DANJINGPERCCHANNENGCHENGWEIZHULIU。2018NIANDANJINGPERCCHANNENGYUE70GW,2019NIANDIYOUWANGCHAOGUO110GW。

乐彩网 JINGJIAJIPINGJIABAOZHANGGAOXIAODIANCHIXUQIU。SUIZHUPINGJIASHANGWANGYUELAIYUEJIN,JUYOUGENGGAOZHUANHUANXIAOLVDEDANJINGPERCDIANCHIKEYIYOUXIAOJIANGDITUDIDENGJUNTANCHENGBEN,PERC+SHUANGMIAN+XIEDANZHOUYOUWANGCHENG WEIBIAOPEI。

NXINGDIANCHISHUAIJIANDI、ZAILIUZISHOUMINGGAO,ZHUANHUAXIAOLVYOUSHIXIANZHU,YIZHISHIQUANQIUGAOXIAOJINGTIGUIDIANCHIYANFAHECHANYEHUADEREDIAN。

YIZHIJIEDIANCHIJUYOUJIAOGAODEKAILUDIANYAHEDIANCHIXIAOLV。

YIZHIJIEDIANCHILIANGCHANXIAOLVYICHAOGUO22%,SHIYANSHIXIAOLVCHAOGUO24%,FAZHANQIANLIJUDA。

乐彩网 QUANQIUYIZHIJIECHANNENGZONGLIANGYUE4GW,ZHUYAOFENBUZAIZHONGGUO、OUZHOUHEMEIGUO。QIZHONGGUONEICHANNENGYUE1.18GW,ZHANBI30%。

組件:高效組件節約BOS成本,單瓦價格較高

乐彩网 2018NIANQUANGUOZUJIANCHANLIANGDADAO85.7GW,TONGBIZENGCHANG14.3%,YIJINGTIGUIZUJIANWEIZHU。ZUJIANCHANLIANGCHAOGUO2GWDEQIYEYOU11JIA,QICHANLIANGZONGHEZHANZONGCHANLIANGDE62.3%。YUJI2019NIANZUJIANCHANLIANGZONGHEJIANGCHAOGUO90GW。

2018NIANSIJIDUZHIJINZUJIANJIAGEJIBENCHIWEN。JIEZHI2019NIAN6YUE24RI280WDUOJINGZUJIANJUNJIA1.83YUAN/W,310WDANJINGZUJIANJUNJIA2.15YUAN/W。

乐彩网 BANPIAN、DIEWA、DUOZHUZHA、SHUANGMIANJISHUSHENTOULVJIANGXUNSUTISHENG。

乐彩网 ZUJIANDUANGONGLVTISHENGYUJICHENGWEIWEILAIGUANGFUJINGJIXINGJINYIBUTIGAODEZHONGYAOQUDONGLI。

DIEWAJISHUYAOQIUCHANXIANGAIZAO,ZUJIANHUANJIEZIBENKAIZHIYOUWANGZENGCHANG。

玻璃:雙玻組件發展提升光伏玻璃需求

SHUANGBOZUJIANSHENTOULVCHIXUTIGAO,GUANGFUBOLIYOUWANGLIANGJIAQISHENG。2016-2018NIANSHUANGBOZUJIANSHENTOULVYUEWEI3.85%、6.6%、12%,CPIAYUJIDAO2020NIANYOU WANGDADAO22%。ZUJIANCHICUNXIANGTONGSHI,SHUANGBOZUJIANGUANGFUBOLIXUQIULIANGSHIDANBOZUJIANDE2BEI(YIMIANJIJI)。WOMENBAOSHOUYUJI2019-2021NIANGUANGFUBOLIXUQIUZHISHAOWEI796BAIWANPINGMI、904BAIWAN PINGMI、1016BAIWANPINGMI。

CHANPINQINGBOHUA:CHANGGUIGAIBANHOUDUWEI3.2mm,GENGQINGBODEBOLIGAIBANYOUZHUCHANPINJIANZHONG、SANRE,YOUQISHIHESHUANGMIANSHUANGBOZUJIAN。YUJI2021NIAN2.5mmGAIBANFENEYOUWANGTISHENGZHI27%。

乐彩网 YAOLUDAXINGHUA:BOLISHENGCHANJUYOUMINGXIANDEGUIMOXIAOYING,YIBANYUEDAXINGDEYAOLUDANWEINEIHAOHESHENGCHANCHENGBENYUEDI。DAXINGYAOLUTOUZICHENGBENJIAOGAO,ZIJIN、JISHUSHILIJIAOQIANGDELONGTOUQIYEYOUWANGZAICHANNENGKUOZHANGZHONGHUOYI。

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